The Dunning-Kruger Effect
by Jeff Reed
McArthur Wheeler robs a bank with lemon juice on his face.
On April 19, 1995, a seemingly crazy thing happened in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania. A very confident man robbed two different banks without using a disguise. He was so sure of his invisibility that he looked directly at the security cameras. His picture circulated on local television, and he was quickly arrested. McArthur Wheeler believed that using lemon juice would keep his face unseen to security cameras. He reasoned that since lemon juice is used to write invisible ink messages on paper, it would also hide his face. He was thoroughly shocked that he was caught and was observed saying, “But I wore the juice!” McArthur was very wrong in that belief. Local news reported that he even tested his theory earlier with a Polaroid camera. It appears that he was not skilled in the use of it either.
“Wise people are careful and avoid trouble; fools are too confident and careless” (Proverbs 14:16, ERV). The story of this strange incident of foolish confidence led researchers David Dunning and Justin Kruger to study this phenomenon. McArthur Wheeler’s behavior, though headline-worthy bizarre, was nothing new. People with little knowledge and high confidence had been doing foolish things for centuries. Dunning and Krueger set out to understand the connection between one’s abilities and confidence.
Their published study specifically examined the abilities of young adults in relation to their confidence level. Quoting from the studies abstract:
“People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. The authors suggest that this overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it.”
So people with relatively little skill or education can be overconfident in their knowledge or abilities and not be aware of it. This behavior has now become known as the “Dunning-Kruger effect.” It may also be why your conspiracy-minded uncle believes the reptilian Illuminati are secretly running the local Arby’s. He may be super-confident in this belief because he has little education in social sciences, logic, or herpetology. Or how many of us thought that we were more intelligent than our parents only to realize later in life that we had behaved stupidly? The study also showed that, in reverse, highly skilled people tend to underestimate their abilities or knowledge.
Dunning-Kruger graph of the relationship between confidence and competence.
Revelation 12:9 indicates that Satan has deceived the whole world. If you are deceived, by definition, you are unaware that you are deceived. Just like the “Dunning-Kruger effect,” you do not have the necessary skills or knowledge to realize it. This is one reason why there is so much wrong information about the Bible online. The numerous would-be prophets, preachers, and scholars are confident in their conclusions and doctrines—so confident that if you don’t believe them they consider you lost or an apostate. But they do not have education in Bible history, critical thinking, hermeneutics (knowledge of interpreting Scriptures), and other skills to understand the Bible. They may not be relying on the Holy Spirit to give them wisdom in these matters.
Many others present wrong information on various other non-biblical subjects that could lead us astray on significant decisions and behaviors in our lives. They offer this false information with so much confidence that it can deceive the gullible or uneducated. Believing and acting on incorrect information can lead to significant problems in our lives. This information frequently is contrary to a biblically-based lifestyle of truth.
So how can we avoid the foolishness displayed in the “Dunning-Kruger effect”? We do not want to be overconfident in ignorance. Jesus tells us that “whoever exalts himself will be humbled, and he who humbles himself will be exalted” (Luke 14:11). We need the humility to realize that we may lack skills in certain areas. Sometimes rather than appearing foolish, it is better to say, “I don’t know” or nothing at all.
As Christians, we need to study God’s Word with an open heart and humble mind. We need to pray that God’s Spirit will lead us to wisdom. Putting our confidence in Jesus and His words rather than our own is an excellent first step. And know that wisdom is something that God desires us to have.
“If any of you lacks wisdom, let him ask of God, who gives to all liberally and without reproach, and it will be given to him” (James 1:5).
Sources:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/dunning-kruger-effect
https://www.britannica.com/science/Dunning-Kruger-effect
https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1999-15054-002