North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Future

by Mike James

Recent comments by former President Trump on the NATO alliance have created a controversy. In February 2024 Trump warned he would not protect NATO members that did not meet their defense spending targets for the organization if he became President again. Trump suggested in a campaign speech that he would encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want.” The Democrats were quick to criticize Trump for these statements due to long standing US commitments to the NATO alliance.

This is not the first time there has been concern about Trump’s thoughts on the US/NATO alliance. In 2018 at a NATO summit in Brussels both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton were worried about what Trump would say to the NATO allies. They had concerns he planned to leave NATO and begged him not to. According to Bolton, “He’s never lost the desire to get out.”

Trump’s campaign has called for “fundamentally reevaluating NATO’s purpose and NATO’s mission” in a second term. Former Trump aides are suggesting the idea of punishing countries that don’t meet their military spending pledges by withdrawing security guarantees or imposing trade tariffs. Trump allies working at the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 who are planning for another Republican administration are proposing reducing the number of US troops based in Europe.

These new ideas about the US/NATO alliance are not limited to former President Trump. Other prominent political figures have similar ideas. Not long after Trump made the news with his NATO comments, former Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard weighed in, “What is the role of NATO? Does our membership in NATO serve our national security interests? And if it does, then how much are we the American people willing to put on the line in our taxpayer dollars and in American lives? And how much are these NATO members willing to put on the line in their money and the lives of their citizens?”

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy told POLITICO in October 2023 the idea of the U.S. leaving NATO was “reasonable,” but stopped short of supporting taking the U.S. out of the alliance.

Republican Senator J.D. Vance (Ohio) stated, “The problem with Europe is that it does not provide enough of a deterrent on its own…. I think the American security blanket has allowed European security to atrophy.”

This is a dramatic shift in how NATO has always been dealt with by American politicians. Prior to the last eight years there has never been a question as to the US role in the NATO alliance. It has been a given of US foreign policy. But the winds of change have begun to blow on this issue and who knows where the alliance will be twenty years from now.

If US politicians continue to push for changes in the alliance Europe will be forced to react especially due to concerns about Russia. European nations have already ramped up weapons production in support of the Ukraine war effort. There is also talk within Europe to push further especially if Trump wins the presidency.

European leaders have called for greater unity and military cooperation across the continent in response to comments from Trump that threaten to undermine the basis of NATO.

In a recent op-ed, Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner said, “The turning point in German security policy has now lasted two years…. It is becoming increasingly clear that the era following the end of the East-West conflict, which laid the foundations for Germany’s security, stability and prosperity with its security policy decisions, is irrevocably over. One thing must be clear to us: there is no way back to the security policy paths of the past 30 years.”

Katarina Barley, a German Social Democrat Member European Parliament (MEP), said that US nuclear protection of Europe is no longer a given. “In view of Donald Trump’s latest statements, this can no longer be relied upon,” she told the Tagesspiegel. Asked whether the EU needed its own nuclear bombs, the SPD politician replied: “On the way to a European army, this could also become an issue.”

What does any of this have to do with the Bible? Well, over the history of the Church of God movement there has been a theory that the King of the North will rise out of Europe. If that theory is true, the fact that the European Union (EU) may finally be ready to reassert itself as a military power might be significant.

If the EU feels they no longer can rely on the United States to protect them (NATO alliance) they will have to protect themselves by significantly enhancing their military capabilities. This would not be difficult due to their economic and technological capabilities. Don’t forget France is fourth in the world when it comes to nuclear weapon capability.

I personally don’t know what the future will bring, but just a note to keep us aware of geopolitical possibilities that may one day impact biblical prophecy.

Sources:

“Donald Trump Stands by Remarks About Not Defending NATO Members After Backlash,” by Meg Kinnard and Michelle L. Price, February 14, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/trump-backlash-nato-funding-russia-ukraine-796f245e06d1a0f314e3b4bfdb793cc0

“Tulsi Gabbard Backs Trump’s NATO Funding Stance, Criticizes Biden, Clinton, and ‘War Mongers,’” by Katabella Roberts, February 20, 2024, The Epoch Times, https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/tulsi-gabbard-supports-trumps-nato-funding-stance-criticizes-biden-clinton-and-war-mongers-5590781?ea_src=author_manual&ea_med=related_stories

“Trump didn’t quit NATO, but a potential second term alarms allies,” by Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey, and Michael Birnbaum, February 19, 2024, The Washington Post

“Ramaswamy wants the US out of NATO,” by Alexander Ward, January 5, 2024, Politico, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/05/ramaswamy-wants-the-us-out-of-nato-00134068#:~:text=Last%20October%2C%20Ramaswamy%20told%20POLITICO,credible%20deterrent%20force%20against%20Russia

“European leaders call for stronger defence ties after Trump’s Nato remarks,” by Dan Sabbagh, The Guardian, February 12, 2024

“Europe’s security elite braces for Trump, searches for backup plans,” by Emily Rauhala, Michael Birnbaum, and Souad Mekhennet, The Washington Post, February 18, 2024

“German minister calls for British and French nuclear weapons to protect Europe,” Euronews, February 15, 2024, https://www.euronews.com/2024/02/15/german-minister-calls-for-british-and-french-nuclear-weapons-to-protect-europe

“EU nuclear weapons ‘unrealistic,’ says German defense committee chair,” by Sejla Ahmatovic, Politico, February 14, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-defense-committee-marie-agnes-strack-zimmermann-european-nuclear-weapons/